The US tariff system is entering a new phase. On one hand, progress is being made on a federal mechanism for tariff refunds, while on the other hand, it is increasingly evident that the burden of the new tariffs is falling mainly on the domestic economy.
A mechanism for refunds
According to a recent request from the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the development of a federal IEPPA refund infrastructure is well underway and some central aspects have already been almost completed, including the CAPE system (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries), designed to handle requests, processing, and disbursements. Once active, CBP expects that the processes will take up to 45 days for payment from the submission of the application. The implementation will occur in phases and will start with customs operations settled within the previous 80 days. The scope has been further expanded to include practices with suspended or extended settlement, in addition to warehouse and withdrawal operations. In anticipation of the launch, importers are adapting to digital payment requirements: by the end of March, 26,664 importers were registered for electronic payments, representing approximately 78% of eligible operations, for a total of around $120 billion in duties collected.
Increasing pressure on consumers
While tariffs are advancing administratively, from an economic point of view, new analyses highlight an increasingly direct economic impact on US businesses and consumers. According to a survey conducted by KPMG in 2026, companies are increasingly transferring the costs of tariffs to the final prices paid by consumers, rather than absorbing them in margins. Tariffs are therefore seen less as a tool to shift costs to foreign producers and more as an internal factor in price determination. Several companies report limited flexibility in offsetting higher import costs, especially in sectors with complex global supply chains or limited supply alternatives. As a result, price increases are becoming a primary response mechanism. The analysis results also suggest that tariffs contribute to additional and broader pressures on inflation, with updated prices spreading along the distribution chain to retailers. The most exposed segments are those in direct contact with the consumer, as their business is essentially based on imported materials and finished products. Among these, the sectors of clothing, footwear, and sporting goods stand out. Overall, a dual dynamic emerges: while the US government approaches the introduction of a structured and digitized system for tariff refunds, the immediate financial burden of tariffs continues to weigh on the domestic economy, with companies facing rising costs and consumers dealing with higher prices.
